The NAB business confidence index in Australia declined to 2 in February 2019 from 4 in the previous month and below market consensus of 3. It was the lowest reading since January 2016, as the index remained below average of 6 for the fifth straight month amid a sharp meltdown in the construction sector and housing deflation. Business conditions fell by 3 points to 4, below its long-run average of 6, driven by declines in profitability declined 4 points to +1, trading lost 2 points to +8, and employment was unchanged at +5. Meantime, forward orders declined 4 points to -2 and exports edged down 1 points to -1. Business Confidence in Australia averaged 5.97 Index Points from 1997 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 21 Index Points in April of 2002 and a record low of -30 Index Points in October of 2008.
Business Confidence in Australia is expected to be 2.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Australia to stand at 7.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Business Confidence is projected to trend around 6.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.