RBI Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged


The Reserve Bank of India left its benchmark repo rate at 6.75 percent, as expected. Policymakers said they will monitor commodity prices, especially food and oil, while tracking inflationary expectations and external developments.

The central bank also decided to keep the cash reserve at 4.0 percent, to provide liquidity under overnight repos at 0.25 percent and to maintain daily variable rate repos and reverse repos to smooth liquidity.

Excerpts from the statement by Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan, Governor:

In India, the Reserve Bank assessed that the inflation target for January 2016 at 6 percent was within reach. Accordingly, it front-loaded its policy action in response to weak domestic and global demand that were holding back investment, while noting that structural reforms and productivity improvements would continue to provide the main impetus for sustainable growth.

Inflation is expected to rise further until December before plateauing. Although the seasonal moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits is expected to provide some respite, the El Nino induced shortening of winter may limit this effect.

The step-up in public capital spending and the easing stance of monetary policy provide the enabling environment for a revival in private investment demand, supported by easing input prices and improving conditions for doing business. The growth projection for 2015-16 has accordingly been kept unchanged at 7.4 percent with a mild downside bias.

The implementation of the Pay Commission proposals, and its effect on wages and rents, will also be a factor in the Reserve Bank’s future deliberations, though its direct effect on aggregate demand is likely to be offset by appropriate budgetary tightening as the Government stays on the fiscal consolidation path. In the meantime, since the rate reduction cycle that commenced in January, less than half of the cumulative policy repo rate reduction of 125 bps has been transmitted by banks. The median base lending rate has declined only by 60 bps. The Reserve Bank will shortly finalise the methodology for determining the base rate based on the marginal cost of funds, which all banks will move to. The Government is examining linking small savings interest rates to market interest rates. These moves should further help transmission of policy rates into lending rates. In addition, the on-going clean-up of bank balance sheets will help create room for fresh lending. The Reserve Bank will use the space for further accommodation, when available, while keeping the economy anchored to the projected disinflation path that should take inflation down to 5 per cent by March 2017. 

RBI Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged


RBI l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com
12/1/2015 6:28:47 AM