India Inflation Rate Rises Less than Forecasts


Annual consumer inflation in India edged up to 3.77 percent in September of 2018 from 3.69 percent in August, but below market expectations of 4 percent. Food inflation increased only slightly, in line with central bank expectations. Earlier in the week, the Reserve Bank of India cut its inflation forecasts to 4 percent from 4.6 percent in Q2:2018-19 (July-September 2018), mentioning low food inflation.

Food and beverages inflation went up to 1.08 percent from 0.85 percent in August and the food index alone rose 0.51 percent, slightly higher than 0.29 percent in August. Prices rose faster for prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc. (4.41 percent compared to 4.16 percent); and non-alcoholic beverages (2.1 percent compared to 1.86 percent). On the other hand, inflation slowed for fruits (1.12 percent compared to 3.57 percent in August); milk and products (2.58 percent compared to 2.66 percent); eggs (3.76 percent compared to 6.96 percent); meat and fish (2.32 percent compared to 3.21 percent); oils and fats (3.21 percent compared to 3.47 percent); and was flat for spices (2.88 percent, the same as in August). Also, prices fell for vegetables (-4.15 percent compared to -7 percent); pulses and products (-8.58 percent compared to -7.76 percent); and sugar and confectionery (--6.42 percent compared to -5.81 percent).   
Among non-food products, prices rose at a faster pace for pan, tobacco and intoxicants (5.57 percent compared to 5.34 percent); and miscellaneous (5.65 percent compared to 5.52 percent) but were softer for housing (7.07 percent compared to 7.59 percent); and clothing and footwear (4.64 percent compared to 4.88 percent). Inflation was unchanged for fuel and light (8.47 percent, the same as in August).
The corresponding provisional inflation rates for rural and urban areas were 3.34 percent and 4.31 percent, compared with August's figures of 3.41 percent and 3.99 percent respectively.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.07 percent in August, after a 0.43 percent gain in August.

India Inflation Rate Rises Less than Forecasts


Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
10/12/2018 12:57:36 PM