India Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged at 6.5% in August


The Reserve Bank of India left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at a five-year low of 6.5 percent during the meeting held on August 9th, as widely expected. While awaiting space for policy action, policymakers said the stance of monetary policy will remain accommodative and continue to emphasize the adequate provision of liquidity.

The central bank also decided to keep the cash reserve at 4.0 percent, to provide liquidity as required but progressively lower the average ex ante liquidity deficit in the system from one percent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) to a position closer to neutrality.

Excerpts from the final review by Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan, Governor:

In India, the recent sharper-than-anticipated increase in food prices has pushed up the projected trajectory of inflation over the rest of the year. Moreover, prices of pulses and cereals are rising and services inflation remains somewhat sticky. There are early indications, however, that prices of vegetables are edging down. Going forward, the strong improvement in sowing on the back of the monsoon’s steady progress, along with supply management measures, augers well for the food inflation outlook. The prospects for inflation excluding food and fuel are more uncertain; if the current softness in crude prices proves to be transient and as the output gap continues to close, inflation excluding food and fuel may likely trend upwards and counterbalance the benefit of the expected easing of food inflation. In addition, the full implementation of the recommendations of the 7th central pay commission (CPC) on allowances will affect the magnitude of the direct effect of house rents on the CPI.

The momentum of growth is expected to be quickened by the normal monsoon raising agricultural growth and rural demand, as well as by the stimulus to consumption spending that can be expected from the disbursement of pay, pension and arrears following the implementation of the 7th CPC’s award. The passage of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill augurs well for the growing political consensus for economic reforms. While timely implementation of GST will be challenging, there is no doubt that it should raise returns to investment across much of the economy, even while strengthening government finances over the medium-term. This should boost business sentiment and eventually investment. The current accommodative stance of monetary policy and comfortable liquidity conditions should also provide a congenial environment for the reinvigoration of aggregate demand conditions. However, successive downgrades of global growth projections by multilateral agencies and the continuing sluggishness in world trade points to further slackening of external demand going forward. 

Risks to the inflation target of 5 percent for March 2017 continue to be on the upside. Furthermore, while the direct statistical effect of house rent allowances under the 7th CPC’s award may be looked through, its impact on inflation expectations will have to be carefully monitored so as to pre-empt a generalisation of inflation pressures. In terms of immediate outcomes, much will depend on the benign effects of the monsoon on food prices.

India Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged at 6.5% in August


RBI l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com
8/9/2016 8:29:09 AM