Year-on-year, inflation should pick up for: energy (12.2 percent vs 10.0 percent in May) and food (1.9 percent vs 1.8 percent), mostly fresh food (5.9 percent vs 5.0 percent) as other food cost must remain steady (1.2 percent). Meanwhile, services prices are expected to ease (1.3 percent vs 1.5 percent) and manufactured products cost should decrease at the same pace (-0.2 percent).
On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to increase 0.1 percent in June 2018, easing from a 0.4 percent rise in May, in line with market expectations. This lower rise should come from a slowdown in energy prices and a seasonal decline in food prices. In addition, services prices are set to advance at the same pace as in the previous month as the drop in the rent prices in social housing would be offset by a seasonal rebound in transport services prices. Up in the previous month, manufactured product prices should be stable in June.
The harmonized index of consumer prices is estimated to advance 2.4 percent (2.3 percent in May); and by 0.1 percent month-over-month (0.5 percent in May).