India Holds Policy Rate at 8%


At its June 3rd, 2014 meeting, Reserve Bank of India left the repo rate at 8 percent, but cut the amount of government bonds banks must hold with the central bank - the statutory liquidity ratio - by 50 bps to 22.5 percent, aiming to increase bank credit.

The cut in statutory liquidity ratio will take effect from the fortnight beginning June 14, 2014. The central bank also decided to reduce the liquidity provided under the export credit refinance facility from 50 per cent of eligible export credit outstanding to 32 per cent with immediate effect. Policymakers introduced a special term repo facility of 0.25 per cent of net demand and time liabilities to compensate fully for the reduction in access to liquidity under the ECR with immediate effect.

Excerpts from the statement by Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan, Governor:

In March and April, CPI headline inflation has risen on the back of a sharp increase in food prices. Some of this price pressure will continue into May, but it is largely seasonal. Moreover, CPI inflation excluding food and fuel has been edging down. The risks to the central forecast of 8 per cent CPI inflation by January 2015 remain broadly balanced. Upside risks in the form of a sub-normal/delayed monsoon on account of possible El Nino effects, geo-political tensions and their impact on fuel prices, and uncertainties surrounding the setting of administered prices appear at this stage to be balanced by the possibility of stronger Government action on food supply and better fiscal consolidation as well as the pass through of recent exchange rate appreciation. Accordingly, at this juncture, it is appropriate to leave the policy rate unchanged, and to allow the disinflationary effects of rate increases undertaken during September 2013-January 2014 to mitigate inflationary pressures in the economy.

The Reserve Bank remains committed to keeping the economy on a disinflationary course, taking CPI inflation to 8 per cent by January 2015 and 6 per cent by January 2016. If the economy stays on this course, further policy tightening will not be warranted. On the other hand, if disinflation, adjusting for base effects, is faster than currently anticipated, it will provide headroom for an easing of the policy stance.

In pursuance of the Dr. Urjit R. Patel Committee’s recommendation to move away from sector-specific refinance towards a more generalized provision of system liquidity without preferential access to any particular sector or entity, the Reserve Bank has decided to limit access to export credit refinance while compensating fully with a commensurate expansion of the market’s access to liquidity through a special term repo facility from the Reserve Bank (equivalent to 0.25 per cent of NDTL). This should improve access to liquidity from the Reserve Bank for the system as a whole without the procedural formalities relating to documentary evidence, authorization and verification associated with the ECR. This should also improve the transmission of policy impulses across the interest rate spectrum and engender efficiency in cash/treasury management.

As the economy recovers, investment demand and the need for credit will pick up. To the extent that this contributes eventually to supply, it is important that banks have the room to finance it. A reduction in the required SLR will give banks more freedom to expand credit to the non-Government sector. However, the Reserve Bank is also cognizant of the significant on-going financing needs of the Government. Therefore, the SLR is reduced by 0.50 per cent of NDTL, with any further change dependent on the likely path of fiscal consolidation.

India Holds Policy Rate at 8%


RBI | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
6/3/2014 9:45:06 AM