Statement on Monetary Policy
1. At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a unanimous vote,1 to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
The Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.1 percent.
2. Japan's economy is starting to recover moderately, induced by improvement in overseas economic conditions. Exports and production have been increasing mainly against a backdrop of high growth in emerging economies. In these circumstances, business fixed investment is showing signs of picking up. Private consumption, notably durable goods consumption, is picking up partly due to policy measures. Public investment is declining. Meanwhile, financial conditions, with some lingering severity, have continued to show signs of easing. The CPI (excluding fresh food) is declining on a year-on-year basis due to the substantial slack in the economy as a whole, but the moderating trend in the pace of decline has continued.
3. The Bank's baseline scenario projects that the economy is likely to be on a recovery trend. With regard to prices, based on the assumption that medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain stable, the year-on-year rate of decline in the CPI (excluding fresh food) is expected to slow as the aggregate supply and demand balance improves gradually.
4. With regard to economic activity, while there are some upside risks such as faster growth in emerging and commodity-exporting economies, there are also downside risks such as those related to international financial developments. In this regard, attention should be paid to the effects of developments regarding fiscal conditions in some European economies on international finance and the global economy. With regard to prices, there is a possibility that inflation will rise more than expected due to a rise in commodity prices brought about by higher growth rates in emerging and commodity-exporting economies, while there is also a risk that the rate of inflation might decline due, for example, to a decline in medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
5. The Bank recognizes that Japan's economy faces the critical challenge of overcoming deflation and returning to a sustainable growth path with price stability. To this end, the Bank will continue to consistently make contributions as central bank. In the conduct of monetary policy, the Bank will aim to maintain the extremely accommodative financial environment.
6. At the Monetary Policy Meeting held on April 30, 2010, with a view to strengthening the foundations for economic growth, the Bank announced to support private financial institutions in terms of fund provisioning, and has since been examining possible ways of implementation. At today's Meeting, based on a report from staff, the Bank decided to compile and announce a preliminary framework for the fund provisioning, as in the Attachment, and to examine further operational details.