ECB May Extend QE If Inflation Outlook Worsens


Support from ECB's monetary policy is still needed if inflation rates are to converge towards the 2 percent target in a sustained manner, President Mario Draghi said at the ECON committee of the European Parliament. Draghi also noted that recent pick-ups in inflation were driven by energy prices while underlying inflation pressures remain subdued, and confirmed that the central bank is prepared to expand its record stimulus programme if the inflation outlook becomes less favourable.

Excerpts from introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament, Brussels, 6 February 2017:

At the December meeting, the Governing Council saw the need for the recovery to further mature and strengthen to ensure a sustained convergence of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. For this to happen, financing conditions have to remain supportive, taking remaining uncertainties inside and outside the euro area into account. We therefore decided to safeguard the amount of monetary easing for the period ahead.

Against this background, we decided to extend the asset purchase programme beyond March 2017, with the intention of conducting our purchases until the end of December 2017 or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. We will continue to purchase assets at a monthly pace of €80 billion until March. Starting from April, our net asset purchases will run at a monthly pace of €60 billion, and we will reinvest the securities purchased earlier under our programme, as they mature. This will add to our monthly net purchases.

Our December decisions strike a balance between our growing confidence that the euro area’s economic prospects are firming up, and – at the same time – the lack of a clear sign of sustained convergence of inflation rates towards the desired level.

But support from our monetary policy measures is still needed if inflation rates are to converge towards our objective with sufficient confidence and in a sustained manner. The pickup in headline inflation in December and in January largely reflects sizeable upward base effects and recent increases in energy prices. So far underlying inflation pressures remain very subdued and are expected to pick up only gradually as we go on. This lack of momentum in underlying inflation reflects largely weak domestic cost pressures. The still significant degree of labour market slack and weak productivity developments are weighing down on wage growth.

As I have argued before, our monetary policy strategy prescribes that we should not react to individual data points and short-lived increases in inflation. Our relevant policy horizon is the medium term. We therefore continue to look through changes in HICP inflation if we believe they do not durably affect the medium-term outlook for price stability.

Looking ahead, risks to the euro area outlook remain tilted to the downside and relate predominantly to global factors. Our current monetary policy stance foresees that, if the inflation outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council is prepared to increase the asset purchase programme in terms of size and/or duration.

ECB May Extend QE If Inflation Outlook Worsens


ECB | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
2/6/2017 4:02:50 PM