Year-on-year, upward pressure should come from: energy (5.2 percent from 5 percent in December); services (1.3 percent from 1 percent); manufactured products (0.1 percent from -0.1 percent); tobacco (5.8 percent from 6 percent); and food (1.2 percent from 1.3 percent), of which fresh food (1.6 percent from 2.6 percent) and other food (1.1 percent, the same as in December).
On a monthly basis, consumer prices should fall by 0.1 percent in January, after a 0.3 percent gain in December. Manufactured product prices should fell back significantly, due to the beginning of winter sales. Tobacco prices are also expected to decline while services prices should rise at a slower pace. On the other hand, energy prices should accelerate sharply because of the increase in Brent crude and in taxation. Food prices are set to rise.
The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.5 percent from the previous year; and to decrease by 0.1 percent from the previous month.