Armenia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Armenia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Armenia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.00 17.6 16.3 16 16 15.6 percent
Inflation Rate 0.90 4.1 4.1 0.1 0.1 4 percent
Interest Rate 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 6 6 percent
Balance of Trade -194.90 -184 -188 -188 -188 -188 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 42.23 37 37 33 33 31 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 479.60
 482 482 482 482 482
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 9.60
percent		 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.3 4.3
GDP 11.54
USD Billion		 13 13 13.3 13.3 13.8
GDP Constant Prices 1112169.30
AMD Million		 1621264 1862006 1151095 1257650 2021697
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 128409.30
AMD Million		 274960 453075 132904 181602 491932
GDP per capita 4219.40
USD		 4388 4388 4572 4572 4584
GDP per capita PPP 8787.60
USD		 8896 9111 7519 7519 9524
GDP From Agriculture 53672.40
AMD Million		 342333 293252 55551 112102 318402
GDP From Construction 43284.00
AMD Million		 125893 172171 44799 93318 186937
GDP From Manufacturing 128874.30
AMD Million		 138938 161546 133385 126332 175401
GDP From Mining 40150.50
AMD Million		 43081 48669 41556 33438 52843
GDP From Public Administration 46817.70
AMD Million		 61877 95233 48456 64109 103401
GDP From Services 15524.80
AMD Million		 27677 24849 16068 19738 26980
GDP From Transport 39324.00
AMD Million		 41760 44322 40700 37480 48123
GDP From Utilities 5748.80
AMD Million		 5993 6104 5950 6307 6628
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.00
percent		 17.6 16.3 16 16 15.6
Unemployed Persons 68.60
Thousand 		68.15 68.06 68.01 68 67.99
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.90
percent		 61.52 61.52 61.52 61.52 61.52
Wages 171950.00
AMD/Month		 194000 260000 200000 171623 290000
Minimum Wages 55000.00
AMD/Year		 60000 60000 60000 55002 65000
Population 2.98
Million		 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.94 2.89
Retirement Age Women 63.00
 63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Men 63.00
 63 63 63 63 63
Wages In Manufacturing 151369.00
AMD/Monthly		 190000 210000 204000 155683 242000
Employed Persons 929.00
Thousand		 858 853 854 854 854
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 0.90
percent		 4.1 4.1 0.1 0.1 4
Consumer Price Index CPI 125.62
Index Points		 124 131 130 126 142
Core Consumer Prices 99.80
Index Points		 101 101 101 101 105
Core Inflation Rate 4.20
percent		 1 0.63 0.92 1.36 1.55
Producer Prices 102.40
Index Points		 104 105 103 107 113
Producer Prices Change 4.10
percent		 4.4 4 4.34 4.35 3.7
Inflation Rate Mom -1.60
percent		 0.3 0.4 0.25 0.29 0.29
Import Prices 99.50
Index Points		 101 100 101 101 101
Food Inflation -2.20
percent		 2 2.1 2.39 2.35 2.4
Export Prices 97.20
Index Points		 101 101 101 101 101
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.00
percent		 5.75 5.75 5.75 6 6
Money Supply M0 957127.00
AMD Million		 947567 938642 937186 937060 937335
Money Supply M1 780700.00
AMD Million		 801765 809041 813656 816034 818944
Money Supply M2 1410520.00
AMD Million		 1473729 1512549 1547087 1578002 1756695
Deposit Interest Rate 9.01
percent		 10.61 8.24 7 5.77 5.51
Lending Rate 7.50
percent		 7.47 7.46 7.46 7.45 7.45
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1986.42
USD Million		 1960 1957 1957 1957 1957
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -194.90
USD Million		 -184 -188 -188 -188 -188
Exports 199.40
USD Million		 197 196 195 195 195
Imports 394.30
USD Million		 381 383 383 383 383
Current Account -208.70
USD Million		 -93.62 -290 -206 -93.45 -219
Current Account to GDP -2.90
percent		 -2.8 -2.7 -3 -3 -3.2
External Debt 10687.78
USD Million		 10982 11164 11325 11505 12811
Capital Flows -470.10
USD Million		 -25.84 -401 -68.87 -180 -260
Terms Of Trade 97.70
Index Points		 99.99 100 100 100 100
Terrorism Index 2.37
 1.31 1.38 1.32 1.26 0.31
Tourist Arrivals 52651.00
Thousand		 82000 64600 55800 76700 66800
Remittances 499.80
USD Million		 440 504 308 392 483
Foreign Direct Investment 97.80
USD Million		 55.55 78.65 74.65 63.38 67.5
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.23
percent		 37 37 33 33 31
Government Budget -5.60
percent of GDP		 -4.26 -4.2 -3.87 -3.55 -1.9
Government Budget Value -18993.20
AMD Billion		 -69746 -76818 -75392 -76053 -75908
Government Revenues 266176.50
AMD Billion		 305928 307291 307061 307100 307094
Government Debt 3297.80
AMD Billion		 3458 3542 3618 3695 4373
Fiscal Expenditure 285169.70
AMD Million		 375674 385008 382453 383152 383002
Military Expenditure 437.45
USD Million		 450 457 453 448 451
Government Spending 138139.10
AMD Million		 213632 271751 142974 196585 295057
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 5.60
percent		 8.8 8.2 5.4 7.9 8.4
Industrial Production Mom 13.30
percent		 -0.04 0.14 0.61 0.84 0.98
Manufacturing Production -1.30
percent		 13.24 7.15 8.68 9.61 8.97
Leading Economic Index 9.60
percent		 9.32 4.2 8.65 8.76 3.9
Internet Speed 5182.66
KBps		 4810 4796 4803 4800 4801
IP Addresses 297303.00
IP		 262207 237444 254552 240522 236259
Mining Production -3.40
percent		 -2.99 -3.16 -2.91 -3 -2.98
Ease of Doing Business 47.00
 48 50 49 49 46
Corruption Index 35.00
Points		 35 36 36 36 36
Corruption Rank 107.00
 110 109 108 107 102
Changes In Inventories 112000.00
AMD Million		 93047 74485 52129 33550 16846
Competitiveness Index 4.19
Points		 4.1 4.1 4.19 4.23 4.12
Competitiveness Rank 73.00
 79 79 71 69 68
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales YoY 3.30
percent		 4.53 4.8 4.34 3.12 5.2
Consumer Credit 569958.21
AMD Million		 603125 620633 633478 642896 667601
Consumer Spending 883379.50
AMD Million		 1178549 1304021 914298 1007125 1415858
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 4.20
percent		 1.78 0.9 -0.26 -0.49 2.5
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 36.00
percent		 36 36 35.75 36 36
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 4 4 9
Social Security Rate For Companies 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent		 -2.04 -2.04 0.39 1.21 1.2
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 24.21
mm		 39.9 32.78 29.75 44.31 44.96
Temperature -4.14
celsius		 19.46 3.81 -1.94 18.38 8.76