Argentina's retail trade increased 21.2 percent year-on-year in April 2019, following an upwardly revised 28.4 percent rise in the previous month. It slowest growth rate in 5 months, as sales grew at a slower pace for bookstore & stationery (32.6 percent vs 34.3 percent in March), toys (16.7 percent vs 32.4 percent), sports accessories & clothing (44.5 percent vs 52.9 percent), and footwear & leather goods (25.4 percent vs 30.3 percent). In contrast, growth increased for furnishings, decoration & textiles for home (20.2 percent vs 13.4 percent), and perfumery & pharmacy (70.2 percent vs 65.8 percent). On real terms, retail sales plunged 22.9 percent (vs -15.7 percent), falling for the tenth straight month. Retail Sales YoY in Argentina averaged 21.53 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 72.20 percent in January of 2003 and a record low of -40.30 percent in January of 2002.
Retail Sales YoY in Argentina is expected to be 20.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Argentina to stand at 10.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Argentina Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 17.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.