Argentina's retail trade increased by 25.7 percent year-on-year in December 2018, following a 20.6 percent rise in the previous month. It was the biggest gain in retail trade since June, as sales advanced at a faster pace for clothing & footwear (32.2 percent vs 23.2 percent in November) and sports accessories & clothing (64.1 percent vs 35.2 percent). In contrast, sales slowed for furnishings, and decoration and textiles for home (7.4 percent vs 21.4 percent) and toys (20.0 percent vs 22.4 percent), while sales declined 19.5 percent for electronics & appliance (vs +14.2 percent). On real terms, retail sales declined 13.3 percent, falling for the sixth straight month. Retail Sales YoY in Argentina averaged 21.50 percent from 1998 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 72.20 percent in January of 2003 and a record low of -40.30 percent in January of 2002.
Retail Sales YoY in Argentina is expected to be 10.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Argentina to stand at 8.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Argentina Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 15.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.