Markets Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Currency 40.48 39.93 40.78 41.66 42.55 44.39
Stock Market (points) 34373.20 33375 32299 31261 30254 28336
Government Bond 10y (%) 6.22 5.83 5.86 5.84 5.84 5.85
Overview Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.70 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.4 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -3.50 -1.6 -1.7 -1.4 -1.5 2.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 9.00 9.2 9.4 9 8.2 8.4
Inflation Rate (%) 50.70 45 40 35 28.5 18
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 3.80 4 3.2 3 2.7 2.5
Interest Rate (%) 63.71 50 45 35 25 20
Balance of Trade (USD Million) 372.00 -1200 350 1200 -900 -900
Current Account (USD Million) -7591.00 -9200 -8777 -9180 -9400 -8700
Current Account to GDP (%) -4.80 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.3
Government Debt to GDP (%) 57.10 100 100 100 100 85
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.90 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2.8
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 36.00 35 36.1 38 40 42
Retail Sales MoM (%) 25.90 -10 -14 -18 -15 0.8
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35
GDP Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) -0.70 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.4 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -3.50 -1.6 -1.7 -1.4 -1.5 2.5
GDP (USD Billion) 637.59 680 680 680 680 690
GDP Constant Prices (ARS Million) 695664.00 705554 750751 689403 685229 703045
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (ARS Million) 138728.00 150332 151410 137479 136647 140200
GDP per capita (USD) 10398.09 10900 10900 10900 10900 11200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 18933.91 19000 19000 19000 19000 19100
GDP From Agriculture (ARS Million) 31154.29 30000 35500 30984 33500 35000
GDP From Construction (ARS Million) 22914.16 23282 22352 22502 22570 23157
GDP From Manufacturing (ARS Million) 117564.72 113155 121665 116507 115801 118812
GDP From Mining (ARS Million) 21367.71 20821 21314 20983 21047 21594
GDP From Public Administration (ARS Million) 32929.89 32765 32598 32337 32436 33279
GDP From Services (ARS Million) 87629.89 93075 94420 86841 86315 88560
GDP From Transport (ARS Million) 57101.01 57840 58872 56587 56244 57707
GDP From Utilities (ARS Million) 12773.51 12784 12667 12659 12582 12909
Labour Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 9.00 9.2 9.4 9 8.2 8.4
Employed Persons (Thousand ) 11822.00 11634 11700 11720 11800 12500
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1168.00 1270 1280 1275 1280 1300
Wages (ARS/Month) 35063.00 32000 36000 29600 420000 45000
Minimum Wages (ARS/Month) 11900.00 11300 11500 11500 12000 14000
Population (Million) 44.05 44.61 44.61 44.61 44.51 44.97
Wages High Skilled (ARS/Month) 20500.00 25500 25500 25500 25500 26700
Wages Low Skilled (ARS/Month) 10500.00 11700 11700 11700 11700 12300
Wage Growth (%) 1.66 2.06 2.1 2.11 1.8 1.8
Living Wage Family (ARS/Month) 14400.00 13000 13000 13000 13000 13400
Living Wage Individual (ARS/Month) 10400.00 8000 8000 8000 8000 8400
Prices Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 50.70 45 40 35 28.5 18
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 3.80 4 3.2 3 2.7 2.5
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 196.75 193 203 223 231 284
Producer Prices (Index Points) 279.28 296 343 429 438 701
Inflation Expectations (Percent) 30.00 35 35 35 35 33
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 248.68 238 253 267 285 350
Producer Prices Change (%) 68.30 65 63 60 58 60
Money Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Interest Rate (%) 63.71 50 45 35 25 20
Interbank Rate (%) 45.76 53 56 58 55 45
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 21.55 27 27 27 27 25
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 5514499.95 5917827 6344796 6774630 7197594 8778056
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 60305.00 51700 52000 52200 52000 53000
Trade Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Balance of Trade (USD Million) 372.00 -1200 350 1200 -900 -900
Current Account (USD Million) -7591.00 -9200 -8777 -9180 -9400 -8700
Current Account to GDP (%) -4.80 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.3
Imports (USD Million) 4214.00 5200 4950 4400 5000 5400
Exports (USD Million) 4586.00 5500 5300 5600 4950 5600
External Debt (USD Million) 254979.63 277281 281894 286172 283000 286000
Terms of Trade (Index Points) 127.20 123 123 123 122 121
Capital Flows (USD Million) -7332.59 -10500 -11500 -12000 -11300 -8500
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Millions) 232.31 100 85 75 80 120
Tourist Arrivals 294642.00 214800 216400 215000 225000 245000
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 54.80 60.75 60.54 60.59 60.55 60.58
Government Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 57.10 100 100 100 100 85
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.90 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2.8
Government Budget Value (ARS Million) 6726.40 -17687 -18679 -18824 -18824 -18825
Government Spending (ARS Million) 95670.00 93000 96000 100000 95500 98000
Government Revenues (ARS Million) 319478.00 289724 289235 289177 289188 289188
Fiscal Expenditure (ARS Million) 312751.60 307411 307914 308001 308012 308013
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 5164.97 5238 5238 5238 5238 5350
Taxes Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 27.00 27 27 27 27 27
Business Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Industrial Production (%) -10.80 -1.7 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.3
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.60 -0.9 -1 -1.1 -1 1.2
Capacity Utilization (%) 56.20 62 62 63 62 64
Changes in Inventories (ARS Million) 9945.00 -8577 -10283 21600 21600 28954
Car Production (Units) 32662.00 41696 41465 41490 39700 40900
Car Registrations (Thousand) 30.40 60.1 59.1 54 56 58
Leading Economic Index (%) -0.10 -1.5 -2.7 -3 -2.3 0.9
Consumer Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 36.00 35 36.1 38 40 42
Retail Sales MoM (%) 25.90 -10 -14 -18 -15 0.8
Retail Sales YoY (%) 25.70 10.2 7 5 8 15
Consumer Spending (ARS Million) 503155.00 546751 580353 498627 495608 508493
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 7.10 8.25 8.49 8.53 8.72 8.99
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.99 0.96 0.94 0.91 0.89 0.89
Housing Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Construction Output (%) -20.50 -1 -1.4 -2 -1.5 0.5


Argentina will continue to struggle with lackluster growth for the next few years, as it begins to digest the challenges behind the implementation of President Macri’s economic reforms and the woes coming from its key trading partner Brazil. Structural improvements should materialize in the long run as reforms mature. In the meantime, private consumption should benefit from slowing inflation (albeit still above the administration’s 12-17 percent target for 2017) and credit expansion. As the fiscal deficit continues to narrow and the government’s commitments gain credibility, consumer and business confidence and rising construction activity should lead to faster FDI and fixed investment growth rates. This page has economic forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy.