Argentina - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

Argentina will continue to struggle with lackluster growth for the next few years, as it begins to digest the challenges behind the implementation of President Macri’s economic reforms and the woes coming from its key trading partner Brazil. Structural improvements should materialize in the long run as reforms mature. In the meantime, private consumption should benefit from slowing inflation (albeit still above the administration’s 12-17 percent target for 2017) and credit expansion. As the fiscal deficit continues to narrow and the government’s commitments gain credibility, consumer and business confidence and rising construction activity should lead to faster FDI and fixed investment growth rates. This page has economic forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -4.00 -1 -1.2 -1 -1.1 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.60 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.7 percent
Inflation Rate 34.40 36 38 38 40 40 percent
Interest Rate 60.00 60 60 60 60 40 percent
Balance of Trade -789.00 -2070 -1900 -1050 -1160 -1700 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 57.10 54.7 54.7 54.9 54.9 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 38.25
31.89 32.35 32.82 33.3 35.27
Stock Market 34052.62
points
24340 23666 23010 22372 19994
Government Bond 10y 6.22
percent
5.95 5.82 5.83 5.86 5.85
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -4.00
percent
-1 -1.2 -1 -1.1 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate -4.20
percent
-4.6 -1.9 -1.9 -2 1.3
GDP 637.59
USD Billion
560 560 680 680 690
GDP Constant Prices 752791.00
ARS Million
704592 709418 696677 737735 704986
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 152509.00
ARS Million
152626 156856 148441 149459 155876
GDP per capita 10398.09
USD
10280 10280 13100 13100 13400
GDP per capita PPP 18933.91
USD
18200 18200 19000 19000 18800
GDP From Agriculture 72515.85
ARS Million
32574 32744 36044 35500 32539
GDP From Construction 22625.17
ARS Million
22570 22052 23141 22173 21914
GDP From Manufacturing 122173.79
ARS Million
122985 126798 111731 119730 126006
GDP From Mining 21492.29
ARS Million
20897 21241 20694 21062 21108
GDP From Public Administration 32911.98
ARS Million
32345 32932 32566 32254 32726
GDP From Services 94549.65
ARS Million
94005 96289 91904 92659 95688
GDP From Transport 59099.23
ARS Million
58006 57420 57112 57917 57062
GDP From Utilities 12688.83
ARS Million
12313 11837 12623 12435 11763
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.60
percent
9.6 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.7
Employed Persons 11642.00
Thousand
11750 12000 11744 11700 12500
Unemployed Persons 1239.00
Thousand
1250 1300 1270 1280 1300
Employment Rate 41.90
percent
43.06 43.2 43.09 43.11 45
Labor Force Participation Rate 46.40
percent
46.56 46.46 46.61 46.47 46.51
Wages 29476.00
ARS/Month
29000 40000 32000 36000 45000
Wages In Manufacturing 2781.74
Index Points
3250 3300 3400 4590 3600
Minimum Wages 10700.00
ARS/Month
9500 9500 10000 11704 11000
Population 44.05
Million
44.38 44.38 44.61 44.61 45.2
Wage Growth 1.39
Percent
1.41 1.73 1.78 1.84 1.91
Wages Low Skilled 9910.00
ARS/Month
10540 10540 11700 11700 12300
Wages High Skilled 20000.00
ARS/Month
23000 23000 25500 25500 26700
Living Wage Family 11300.00
ARS/Month
12600 12600 13000 13000 13400
Living Wage Individual 7620.00
ARS/Month
7600 7600 8000 8000 8400
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 34.40
percent
36 38 38 40 40
Inflation Rate Mom 3.90
percent
4.3 3 3 2.8 2.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 155.10
Index Points
160 172 184 203 342
GDP Deflator 1887.00
Index Points
1857 1780 2021 2102 2130
Producer Prices 949.61
Index Points
1377 1329 1282 1282 2106
Export Prices 169.30
Index Points
161 161 160 160 160
Import Prices 122.50
Index Points
119 127 121 121 129
Producer Prices Change 50.20
percent
45 40 35 35 20
Inflation Expectations 30.00
Percent
30 30 35 35 33
CPI Housing Utilities 193.67
Index Points
176 215 226 253 427
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 60.00
percent
60 60 60 60 40
Interbank Rate 45.52
percent
47.38 50 53 56 45
Money Supply M0 1208276.00
ARS Million
1191932 1283097 1313451 1377963 1432662
Money Supply M1 1201390.80
ARS Million
1343243 827047 1461175 1517537 957789
Money Supply M2 1724713.20
ARS Million
1917296 1280000 2115964 2211253 1370000
Money Supply M3 2991375.80
ARS Million
3110451 1671923 3486884 3674802 1851923
Deposit Interest Rate 21.55
percent
24 24 27 27 25
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46132.00
USD Million
50000 52500 51700 52000 53000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4080301.96
USD Million
4339860 4084103 3978388 3964800 3750911
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -789.00
USD Million
-2070 -1900 -1050 -1160 -1700
Exports 5385.00
USD Million
4550 4600 5400 5200 5000
Imports 6174.00
USD Million
6620 6500 6450 6360 6700
Current Account -9623.00
USD Million
-8800 -9100 -9200 -9328 -8700
External Debt 253740.59
USD Million
267887 275000 277308 281922 286000
Current Account to GDP -4.80
percent
-4 -4 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6
Terms of Trade 138.20
Index Points
136 126 133 132 124
Foreign Direct Investment 165.38
USD Millions
140 127 100 85 120
Capital Flows -10060.35
USD Million
-9587 -9700 -10500 -11500 -8500
Tourist Arrivals 234400.00
227600 255000 225000 225400 245000
Gold Reserves 61.70
Tonnes
63.29 62.89 63.17 62.98 63.02
Crude Oil Production 485.00
BBL/D/1K
500 510 485 485 510
Terrorism Index 0.81
1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.1
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 57.10
percent
54.7 54.7 54.9 54.9 56
Government Budget -3.90
percent of GDP
-2.7 -2.7 -3 -3 -2.8
Government Budget Value -10356.40
ARS Million
-18661 -30086 -16719 -25445 -22373
Government Spending 97236.00
ARS Million
97000 102000 93000 96000 98000
Government Revenues 282911.70
ARS Million
263078 250323 262955 254164 257221
Fiscal Expenditure 293268.10
ARS Million
281738 280409 279674 279609 279594
Military Expenditure 5164.97
USD Million
5176 5176 5238 5238 5350
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production -5.70
percent
-1.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 2
Industrial Production Mom 0.60
percent
1.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1 1.2
Capacity Utilization 60.10
percent
60 60 62 62 64
Changes in Inventories -14710.00
ARS Million
10332 17539 13991 15738 15162
Car Production 49335.00
Units
48065 38900 43945 44134 40900
Car Registrations 52.22
Thousand
58.91 55 60.1 59.1 58
Leading Economic Index -0.60
percent
-0.7 -1.7 -1.9 -1.8 0.9
Internet Speed 6268.01
KBps
7159 7097 6980 7261 7495
IP Addresses 8203135.00
IP
8618254 8661368 8697988 8729645 8889896
Steel Production 463.82
Thousand Tonnes
448 426 421 417 414
Competitiveness Index 3.95
Points
3.95 3.95 4 4 4
Competitiveness Rank 92.00
92 92 90 90 91
Corruption Index 39.00
Points
38 38 37 37 36
Corruption Rank 85.00
85 85 84 84 84
Ease of Doing Business 117.00
114 114 117 117 113
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 36.20
Index Points
35.2 35.3 35.5 35.7 36.5
Retail Sales MoM 25.90
percent
1.63 1.2 -10 -14 0.8
Retail Sales YoY 21.30
percent
26 20 10.2 7 15
Consumer Spending 581505.00
ARS Million
514746 491136 539872 569875 488068
Households Debt To Gdp 7.30
percent of GDP
7.64 7.92 7.97 8.19 8.69
Gasoline Prices 0.94
USD/Liter
0.96 0.9 0.85 0.81 0.64
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 731.45
SQ. METRE THO
650 620 639 638 640
Construction Output 0.70
percent
0.4 -0.1 -1 -1.4 0.5
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 44.00
percent
44 44 44 44 44
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00
percent
27 27 27 27 27
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 77.43
mm
25.77 54.22 62.67 48.74 46.12
Temperature 20.31
celsius
9.81 17.8 20.02 11.7 14.99