Argentina will continue to struggle with lackluster growth for the next few years, as it begins to digest the challenges behind the implementation of President Macri’s economic reforms and the woes coming from its key trading partner Brazil. Structural improvements should materialize in the long run as reforms mature. In the meantime, private consumption should benefit from slowing inflation (albeit still above the administration’s 12-17 percent target for 2017) and credit expansion. As the fiscal deficit continues to narrow and the government’s commitments gain credibility, consumer and business confidence and rising construction activity should lead to faster FDI and fixed investment growth rates. This page has economic forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -4.00 -1.2 -1 -1.1 -0.9 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.60 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 percent
Inflation Rate 40.30 44.8 40 35 30 23 percent
Interest Rate 66.65 60 50 45 35 20 percent
Balance of Trade 314.00 -1900 -1050 -1160 -1150 -1700 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 57.10 54.7 54.9 54.9 54.9 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 35.45
40.18 40.98 41.79 42.62 46.09
Stock Market 29423.30
points
31995 31021 30078 29164 25775
Government Bond 10y 6.22
percent
5.82 5.83 5.86 5.84 5.85
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -4.00
percent
-1.2 -1 -1.1 -0.9 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate -4.20
percent
-3.9 -1.3 -1 -1.8 2.3
GDP 637.59
USD Billion
560 680 680 680 690
GDP Constant Prices 752791.00
ARS Million
694955 700938 745263 739241 700275
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 152509.00
ARS Million
153658 149349 150984 149764 154834
GDP per capita 10398.09
USD
10280 13100 13100 13100 13400
GDP per capita PPP 18933.91
USD
18200 19000 19000 19000 18800
GDP From Agriculture 72515.85
ARS Million
31000 30000 35500 30984 35000
GDP From Construction 22625.17
ARS Million
21602 23282 22399 22218 21768
GDP From Manufacturing 122173.79
ARS Million
124213 112414 120952 119975 125163
GDP From Mining 21492.29
ARS Million
20808 20821 21277 21105 20967
GDP From Public Administration 32911.98
ARS Million
32260 32765 32583 32320 32507
GDP From Services 94549.65
ARS Million
94326 92466 93604 92848 95048
GDP From Transport 59099.23
ARS Million
56250 57461 58508 58035 56680
GDP From Utilities 12688.83
ARS Million
11595 12701 12562 12460 11684
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.60
percent
9.8 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7
Employed Persons 11642.00
Thousand
12000 11634 11700 11720 12500
Unemployed Persons 1239.00
Thousand
1300 1270 1280 1275 1300
Employment Rate 41.90
percent
43.2 42.63 42.28 42.59 45
Labor Force Participation Rate 46.40
percent
46.45 46.61 46.46 46.55 46.5
Wages 42398.00
ARS/Month
40000 32000 36000 29600 45000
Minimum Wages 10700.00
ARS/Month
9500 10000 11687 12091 11000
Population 44.05
Million
44.38 44.61 44.61 44.61 45.2
Wages High Skilled 20500.00
ARS/Month
23000 25500 25500 25500 26700
Wages Low Skilled 10500.00
ARS/Month
10540 11700 11700 11700 12300
Wage Growth 2.84
percent
1.73 1.87 1.95 1.99 2.06
Living Wage Family 14400.00
ARS/Month
12600 13000 13000 13000 13400
Living Wage Individual 10400.00
ARS/Month
7600 8000 8000 8000 8400
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 40.30
percent
44.8 40 35 30 23
Inflation Rate Mom 6.50
percent
5.3 4 3.5 3 2.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 165.24
Index Points
181 186 195 215 279
GDP Deflator 1887.00
Index Points
1780 2235 2349 2463 2130
Producer Prices 268.06
Index Points
264 302 354 453 709
Export Prices 160.70
Index Points
156 155 155 156 156
Import Prices 124.70
Index Points
127 126 126 127 129
Inflation Expectations 30.00
Percent
30 35 35 35 33
Core Consumer Prices 161.27
Index Points
185 210 233 253 274
Core Inflation Rate 38.91
percent
50.7 58.33 59.23 53.29 52.97
CPI Housing Utilities 198.11
Index Points
225 230 244 258 348
Cpi Transportation 177.84
Index Points
208 239 268 294 299
Food Inflation 40.36
percent
53.88 61.7 58.11 46.18 47.31
Producer Prices Change 77.80
percent
67 68 68 69 60
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 66.65
percent
60 50 45 35 20
Interbank Rate 60.30
percent
50 53 56 58 45
Money Supply M0 1155082.00
ARS Million
1283097 1276060 1337685 1394019 1432662
Money Supply M1 1357056.00
ARS Million
827047 1463275 1520238 1577085 957789
Money Supply M2 1893023.10
ARS Million
1280000 1888944 1891492 1894034 1370000
Money Supply M3 3109448.30
ARS Million
1671923 3561435 3765354 3968929 1851923
Deposit Interest Rate 21.55
percent
24 27 27 27 25
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4764478.61
USD Million
4084103 5449304 5831052 6186618 9057935
Foreign Exchange Reserves 42429.00
USD Million
52500 51700 52000 52200 53000
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 314.00
USD Million
-1900 -1050 -1160 -1150 -1700
Exports 5013.00
USD Million
4600 5400 5200 5150 5000
Imports 4699.00
USD Million
6500 6450 6360 6300 6700
Current Account -8292.00
USD Million
-9100 -9200 -8777 -9180 -8700
Current Account to GDP -4.80
percent
-4 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6
External Debt 261482.81
USD Million
275000 277281 281894 286172 286000
Terms of Trade 128.90
Index Points
123 123 123 123 121
Capital Flows -8416.87
USD Million
-9700 -10500 -11500 -12000 -8500
Foreign Direct Investment 207.65
USD Millions
127 100 85 75 120
Tourist Arrivals 225300.00
255000 214800 216400 215000 245000
Gold Reserves 61.70
Tonnes
62.89 60.75 60.54 60.59 60.58
Crude Oil Production 483.00
BBL/D/1K
510 484 484 484 510
Terrorism Index 0.81
1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 57.10
percent
54.7 54.9 54.9 54.9 56
Government Budget -3.90
percent of GDP
-2.7 -3 -3 -3 -2.8
Government Budget Value -22854.30
ARS Million
-30086 -16512 -18279 -16600 -17129
Government Spending 97236.00
ARS Million
102000 93000 96000 100000 98000
Government Revenues 284500.00
ARS Million
250323 278805 276701 278322 277780
Fiscal Expenditure 307354.30
ARS Million
280409 295317 294980 294923 294909
Military Expenditure 5164.97
USD Million
5176 5238 5238 5238 5350
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Industrial Production -11.50
percent
-6 -3 0.4 -1.2 1.3
Industrial Production Mom 0.60
percent
-0.8 -0.9 -1 -1.1 1.2
Capacity Utilization 63.00
percent
60 62 62 63 64
Changes in Inventories -14710.00
ARS Million
17539 -8577 -10283 21600 25837
Car Production 38659.00
Units
38900 41696 41465 41490 40900
Car Registrations 37.21
Thousand
55 60.1 59.1 54 58
Leading Economic Index -2.10
percent
-3.3 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 0.9
Internet Speed 6268.01
KBps
7097 6980 7261 7342 7495
IP Addresses 8203135.00
IP
8661368 8697988 8729645 8757428 8889896
Competitiveness Index 57.49
Points
57.49 58 58 58 58.7
Competitiveness Rank 81.00
81 81 81 81 81
Corruption Index 39.00
Points
39 39 39 39 39
Corruption Rank 85.00
85 85 85 85 85
Ease of Doing Business 119.00
114 118 118 118 113
Steel Production 434.74
Thousand Tonnes
421 416 414 413 411
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 32.60
Index Points
33.4 33.8 34.2 35 36.5
Retail Sales MoM 25.90
percent
1.2 -10 -14 -18 0.8
Retail Sales YoY 23.20
percent
17 10.2 7 5 15
Consumer Spending 581505.00
ARS Million
481123 543174 575690 571038 484806
Households Debt To GDP 7.30
percent of GDP
7.92 8.25 8.49 8.53 9.12
Gasoline Prices 1.02
USD/Liter
1.08 0.72 0.68 0.64 1.17
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 740.56
SQ. METRE THO
620 678 675 674 640
Construction Output 0.10
percent
-0.1 -1 -1.4 -2 0.5
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 44.00
percent
44 44 44 44 44
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00
percent
27 27 27 27 27
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 77.43
mm
54.22 62.67 48.74 48.78 46.12
Temperature 20.31
celsius
17.8 20.02 11.7 13.52 14.99



Argentina - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook