Argentina's trade surplus widened to USD 2445 million in November 2019 from USD 987 million in the same month of 2018. It was the largest trade surplus since May 2009, as exports jumped 9.4 percent over a year earlier to USD 5854 million, as sales of primary goods (36.1 percent) and agricultural manufactures (9.4 percent) more than offset declines for industrial (-3.8 percent) and fuels (-30.2 percent). Among major trading partners, exports to China soared 39.6 percent to USD 924 million, whereas those to Brazil declined 9.9 percent to USD 934 million. Notably, sales to India surged 482.9 percent to USD 204 million. Meantime, imports slumped 21.9 percent to USD 3409 million, due to lower purchases of intermediate goods (-29.0 percent), capital (-16.5 percent), consumption goods (-14.5 percent), fuels & lubricants (-19.9 percent), and vehicles (-58.5 percent). Imports fell from China (-24.3 percent), the US (-38.3 percent) and Brazil (-17.9 percent). Balance of Trade in Argentina averaged 226.88 USD Million from 1957 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2543 USD Million in May of 2009 and a record low of -1494 USD Million in November of 2017. source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC)
Balance of Trade in Argentina is expected to be -500.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in Argentina to stand at 200.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Argentina Balance of Trade is projected to trend around 400.00 USD Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.
Argentina Balance of Trade
Argentina has recorded trade surpluses from 2001 to 2014 and in 2016, mostly due to exports of agricultural products. In 2017 and 2018, the balance returned to deficit due to slowdown in exports growth and higher imports. Main exports are: cereals, fats and oils, beef and related products and dairy products (36 percent of total exports), motor vehicles and parts (12 percent); chemicals and related products (7 percent) and crude oil and fuels (5 percent). Main imports are: intermediate goods (29 percent of total imports), parts and accessories for capital goods (20 percent), capital goods (19 percent), fuels and lubricants (13 percent) and motor vehicles (8 percent). Main trading partners are: Brazil (21 percent of total exports and 29 percent of imports), China (7 percent of exports and 14 percent of imports) and United States (5 percent of exports and 10 percent of imports). Others include: Chile, Italy and Spain.