Albania - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Albania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Albania economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.15 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 13.00 13 13 12.7 12.5 11.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.40 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 3 percent
Interest Rate 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent
Balance of Trade -27396.00 -29700 -39000 -28900 -33400 -38500 ALL Million
Government Debt to GDP 69.92 69.5 69.5 69.2 69.2 68.8 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 106.47
110 112 114 116 126
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.15
percent
0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.45
percent
3 2.7 2.8 3.5 2.2
GDP 13.04
USD Billion
14 14 14.5 14.5 14.5
GDP Constant Prices 372884.00
ALL Million
369178 376959 383325 374937 394884
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 72483.00
ALL Million
88150 121942 74513 95639 127740
GDP per capita 4868.20
USD
4900 4900 4960 4960 4970
GDP per capita PPP 11803.40
USD
12023 12138 12275 12275 12687
GDP From Agriculture 66147.00
ALL Million
66034 67275 67999 66384 70474
GDP From Construction 35582.00
ALL Million
36948 36520 36578 40077 38257
GDP From Manufacturing 24474.00
ALL Million
23162 25018 25159 22836 26207
GDP From Mining 53181.00
ALL Million
44762 48026 54670 50292 50309
GDP From Public Administration 41447.00
ALL Million
42771 43346 42608 41468 45407
GDP From Services 58168.00
ALL Million
60117 58650 59797 59262 61439
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 12.7 12.5 11.5
Employed Persons 1128.00
Thousand
1129 1128 1128 1128 1128
Unemployed Persons 85.00
Thousand
90.05 94.43 99.58 105 129
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.00
percent
67.69 67.43 67.08 66.7 64.95
Wages 59728.00
ALL/Month
61300 61500 61800 63513 64000
Minimum Wages 24000.00
ALL/Month
24000 24000 25000 25147 25000
Population 2.87
Million
2.87 2.87 2.87 2.87 2.86
Retirement Age Women 60.67
60.67 60.67 60.83 61 61
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Employment Rate 59.20
percent
59.66 59.92 59.95 59.93 59.92
Youth Unemployment Rate 24.50
percent
23.83 23.56 23.88 23.5 22.89
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.40
percent
2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 3
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10
percent
0.64 0.02 0.17 0.24 0.19
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.87
Index Points
106 107 109 107 113
Producer Prices 103.30
Index Points
104 106 106 107 112
Producer Prices Change 1.00
percent
3.2 2.9 3 1.6 2.8
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.10
Index Points
107 108 111 109 114
Food Inflation 3.20
percent
3.39 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43
Cpi Housing Utilities 104.30
Index Points
104 104 104 104 104
CPI Transportation 102.40
Index Points
103 104 104 105 110
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
Money Supply M0 377273.78
ALL Million
378756 378782 378778 378777 378777
Money Supply M1 447288.75
ALL Million
448642 449506 450096 450580 452398
Money Supply M2 713508.28
ALL Million
716290 717227 718038 718870 726827
Money Supply M3 1223010.00
ALL Million
1200736 1189726 1181806 1176191 1163122
Banks Balance Sheet 1443584.80
ALL Million
1443792 1445437 1447088 1448709 1463332
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10
percent
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Lending Rate 1.90
percent
1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Loans To Private Sector 319522.70
ALL Million
312370 307638 303092 298719 263578
Central Bank Balance Sheet 495278.00
ALL Million
494715 494709 494665 494646 494642
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -27396.00
ALL Million
-29700 -39000 -28900 -33400 -38500
Exports 26580.50
ALL Million
25100 22500 26200 24600 25500
Imports 53976.80
ALL Million
54800 61500 55100 58000 64000
Current Account -164.57
EUR Million
-187 -246 -187 -238 -220
Current Account to GDP -6.40
percent
-6.6 -6.6 -4.9 -4.9 -4.2
Capital Flows -127.49
EUR Million
-222 -199 -243 -210 -222
Gold Reserves 1.60
Tonnes
1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
Foreign Direct Investment 283.50
EUR Million
228 251 247 258 246
External Debt 7905.70
EUR Million
7977 7975 8005 8023 8134
Crude Oil Production 20.00
BBL/D/1K
20.01 19.99 20 19.99 19.99
Terrorism Index 1.49
1 1.04 1 0.95 0.74
Tourist Arrivals 1706295.00
1298100 1290600 1291600 1291500 1291500
Remittances 147.40
EUR Million
166 171 153 162 167
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.92
percent
69.5 69.5 69.2 69.2 68.8
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-1.6 -1.6 -2.36 -2.39 -1
Government Budget Value -735.00
ALL Million
-2975 -2276 -2547 -2221 -2362
Government Spending 37646.00
ALL Million
41460 44877 38700 42371 47011
Government Revenues 180009.00
ALL Million
236477 199897 212362 216767 213065
Government Debt 1036964.00
ALL Million
1049910 1048459 1054650 1057584 1080646
Fiscal Expenditure 180744.00
ALL Million
239451 202020 214909 218988 215426
Military Expenditure 151.55
USD Million
151 160 160 160 159
Government Spending To Gdp 29.70
percent
29.64 29.54 29.64 29.73 30.66
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence -1.40
Index Points
-1.18 -2.5 -0.78 -0.08 -5
Industrial Production 2.40
percent
3.5 4.64 4.94 5.05 4.1
Changes in Inventories 128787.00
ALL Million
135277 135354 135233 135112 134902
Internet Speed 6792.76
KBps
8060 8292 8336 8486 9890
IP Addresses 122132.00
IP
123815 121883 124496 122244 123121
Manufacturing Production 9.40
percent
3.35 5.3 3.75 5.76 5.13
Ease of Doing Business 65.00
78 78 75 72 68
Competitiveness Index 4.18
Points
4.1 4.1 4.15 4.17 3.92
Competitiveness Rank 75.00
75 75 75 75 75
Corruption Index 38.00
Points
38 37 37 37 37
Corruption Rank 91.00
95 99 101 103 103
Mining Production -3.30
percent
2.79 5.07 5.43 5.86 2.99
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -12.50
Index Points
-10.62 -10 -10.6 -11.15 -12
Retail Sales YoY -0.30
percent
4.4 5.34 5.15 4.73 4.65
Consumer Spending 262816.00
ALL Million
276976 272921 270175 306962 285899
Gasoline Prices 1.65
USD/Liter
1.56 1.47 1.39 1.31 0.76
Economic Optimism Index 106.60
110 111 109 112 111
Bank Lending Rate 4.36
percent
4.36 4.36 4.36 4.36 4.36
Consumer Credit 170938.70
ALL Million
172220 173067 173835 174533 178800
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 6.10
percent
14.06 14.05 12.93 11.7 12.24
Building Permits 221.00
286 256 346 332 352
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Personal Income Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 22 22 22
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 24.50
percent
24.5 24.5 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.50
percent
9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 1.95
mm
46.83 124 94 81.56 86.11
Temperature 3.89
celsius
21.04 8.9 4.86 19.25 12.92